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Guest Posts

Wesbury’s Monday Morning Outlook: Moderate Growth for Q2
Date: July 24, 2017
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Since the start of the economic recovery in mid-2009, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 2.1%. The second quarter of this year doesn’t look much different. Our calculations suggest real GDP grew at a 2.5% annual rate in Q2, exactly the same as the consensus forecast. That’s an acceleration from the […]

Wesbury’s Monday Morning Outlook: Hey Government: It’s Time to Get Serious!
Date: July 17, 2017
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At eight years, the current economic recovery is the third longest on record. Personal income, consumer spending, household assets, and net worth, are all at record highs. Stock markets are at record highs. Corporate profits are within striking distance of their all-time highs. Federal tax receipts are at record highs. So, how is it possible […]

Wesbury’s Monday Morning Outlook: Debt-Laden Companies? #FakeNews?
Date: July 10, 2017
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Remember the weak May payroll report – just 138,000?  Didn’t think so.  But, back then, that first report on May was reported as a massive economic slowdown that should stop the Fed from further rate hikes. But the weak May number was due to a calendar quirk that led to an undercount of college kids […]

Wesbury’s take on the economy
Date: July 3, 2017
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Wesbury’s Monday Morning Outlook: Stress Test Government
Date: June 26, 2017
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The Federal Reserve just finished its annual round of large bank stress tests. The banks all passed – meaning they had enough capital to withstand a massive financial shock and deep recession. These stress tests are the political result of the government blaming banks, and not Fannie and Freddie, for the 2008 Panic and are […]

Wesbury’s Monday Morning Outlook: QE Didn’t Work
Date: June 19, 2017
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Last week the Federal Reserve hiked the federal funds rate by ¼ of a percentage point for the fourth time since December 2015. The funds rate is still below the rate of inflation, which means the Fed is still a long way from becoming tight. The Fed also presented a relatively detailed plan to begin […]

Wesbury’s Monday Morning Outlook: Let Loose
Date: June 12, 2017
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When the Federal Reserve raises rates by another quarter percentage point on Wednesday, you’re going to see many stories about monetary policy getting tight and the potential threat that poses for the economy in general and the bull market in stocks in particular. As usual, you should discount the conventional wisdom. What’s really going on […]

Wesbury’s Monday Morning Outlook: Long Housing, Short Autos
Date: June 10, 2017
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Late last week automakers reported selling cars and light trucks at an annual rate of 16.7 million units in May, down 3% from May 2016. If you look at a twelve-month moving average, sales peaked back in April 2016 and have been trending lower, ever since. Meanwhile, the twelve-month averages for home construction, prices, and […]

Wesbury’s Monday Morning Outlook: We Don’t See No Stinkin’ Bubbles!
Date: May 30, 2017
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Now that we’re eight years into a bull market, some investors just assume something has to go wrong. As a result, we see lots of stories and get lots of questions about “bubbles,” as in “what market or sector is in a bubble already?” Auto sales have been declining lately. In eight of the last […]

Wesbury’s Monday Morning Outlook” Tax Cut Politics
Date: May 22, 2017
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While some investors are freaking out about investigations, tweets, or the personality of President Trump, we are still watching policy. So far, some regulation has been rolled back and more is on tap, the Supreme Court has a more market friendly make-up, and there is a hiring freeze on many government agencies. These policies will […]