While some investors are freaking out about investigations, tweets, or the personality of President Trump, we are still watching policy. So far, some regulation has been rolled back and more is on tap, the Supreme Court has a more market friendly make-up, and there is a hiring freeze on many government agencies. These policies will […]
News of the consumer’s death has traveled fast. It’s not hard to find stories of beleaguered and battlewearied consumers. Famed retail giants are slashing revenue and earnings outlooks, creating worries about retail space in general and malls in particular. Auto sales are slowing, auto loan delinquencies are rising, while delinquent student loans create their own […]
The media talk shows on financial news are many times paid advertisements promoting certain products. Talk to your financial advisor to get an unbiased opinion and the right financial plan for you.
Economic data is volatile. Weather, seasonal adjustments, calendar flukes, and measurement errors all affect the data. Nonetheless, those with a political axe to grind, or an economic forecast of recession or boom, will grab one piece of data and act as if they have discovered the Holy Grail. This happened with Q1 real GDP, which […]
When the French elected François Hollande as President in 2012, the global left rejoiced. Mr. Hollande ran on a platform of protecting workers from capitalism. He wanted to raise the top income tax rate to 75%. Analysts predicted a political turn to the left across Europe, if not beyond. But, anti-capitalist policies create blowback. We […]
As we wrote three months ago, it’s going to take much more than animal spirits to lift economic growth from the sluggish pace of the past several years. Measures of consumer and business confidence continue to perform much better than before the election. But where the economic rubber hits the road, in terms of actual […]
Last Friday, payroll employment data, from a survey of businesses, showed the US created just 98,000 jobs in March. The consensus of forecasters had expected job growth of 175,000. The other jobs number, which comes from a survey of households, showed 472,000 new jobs in March. Private jobs have now grown for 85 consecutive months, […]
If you read us regularly, and we hope you do, you know that we write each week about a topic we think is both important and timely. Last week, we were either clairvoyant, or extremely persuasive. We argued that unless and until the Federal Reserve reduced the size of its balance sheet (and unwound quantitative […]