No one expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates at the meeting this week. A rate change of any kind, either up or down, would be a complete stunner. Instead, the big news on monetary policy this week is very likely to be the Federal Reserve announcing it will begin gradually trimming its balance sheet […]
Think that title sounds familiar? It is. We’ve been here before. And, as before, the “debt ceiling” is a gold mine for some politicians, journalists, and analysts. A possible government shutdown, or reaching a “hard” debt ceiling, are both fun for pessimists to talk about. It seems to happen every couple of years and, as […]
What is the difference in investing for safety (treasury bonds) or the S&P 500 over 10 years? Old school thinking and pessimism can cost you a lot of money over the long term. Watch this important video about long term investing.
Since the start of the economic recovery in mid-2009, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 2.1%. The second quarter of this year doesn’t look much different. Our calculations suggest real GDP grew at a 2.5% annual rate in Q2, exactly the same as the consensus forecast. That’s an acceleration from the […]
At eight years, the current economic recovery is the third longest on record. Personal income, consumer spending, household assets, and net worth, are all at record highs. Stock markets are at record highs. Corporate profits are within striking distance of their all-time highs. Federal tax receipts are at record highs. So, how is it possible […]
The Federal Reserve just finished its annual round of large bank stress tests. The banks all passed – meaning they had enough capital to withstand a massive financial shock and deep recession. These stress tests are the political result of the government blaming banks, and not Fannie and Freddie, for the 2008 Panic and are […]
While some investors are freaking out about investigations, tweets, or the personality of President Trump, we are still watching policy. So far, some regulation has been rolled back and more is on tap, the Supreme Court has a more market friendly make-up, and there is a hiring freeze on many government agencies. These policies will […]
Last Friday, payroll employment data, from a survey of businesses, showed the US created just 98,000 jobs in March. The consensus of forecasters had expected job growth of 175,000. The other jobs number, which comes from a survey of households, showed 472,000 new jobs in March. Private jobs have now grown for 85 consecutive months, […]
If you read us regularly, and we hope you do, you know that we write each week about a topic we think is both important and timely. Last week, we were either clairvoyant, or extremely persuasive. We argued that unless and until the Federal Reserve reduced the size of its balance sheet (and unwound quantitative […]
Not really. Watch our video blog for the reasons why.