Next week, government statisticians will release the first estimate for third quarter real GDP growth. In spite of hurricanes, and continued negativity by conventional wisdom, we expect 2.8% growth. If we’re right about the third quarter, real GDP will be up 2.2% from a year ago, which is exactly equal to the growth rate since […]
Since the start of the economic recovery in mid-2009, real GDP has grown at an average annual rate of 2.1%. The second quarter of this year doesn’t look much different. Our calculations suggest real GDP grew at a 2.5% annual rate in Q2, exactly the same as the consensus forecast. That’s an acceleration from the […]
Michael Rogan, founder of Rogan & Associates discusses why you shouldn’t take what you hear in the media to heart.
Two weekend articles, in major US newspapers, left us shaking our heads. The Washington Post wrote that “economic growth actually kills people,” while The Wall Street Journal published a piece saying, ironically, we should get used to slow growth – it’s normal. Both are ridiculous. First, The Washington Post cited statistical studies that blame premature […]
Last Friday was an interesting day. For years now, the US has consistently added jobs and the unemployment rate has steadily fallen. But, the Pouting Pundits of Pessimism keep arguing that a falling unemployment rate is only because of weak growth in the labor force. So, on Friday, when the employment data for March were […]
While reviewing market and manager data after Monday’s close amid the talk of crashes, corrections and the end of the world as we know it, we made a rather startling discovery. While expecting to see declines across the board, much to our surprise we discovered that: …the market is actually up! Now, we […]
Experienced cruisers, a term describing many Rogan Associates employees, clients and friends, know that one of the first things that happens upon boarding a ship is the lifeboat drill. During that drill, the crew explains what you are supposed to do when the emergency alarms sound (aside from running in circles with a panicked look […]
For over a year, the market “experts”, “talking heads” , “soothsayers”, “prognosticators”, “catastrophists” (choose your favorite) have been warning that the next market decline is right around the corner. Despite the fact that they have been incorrect each and every time (which perhaps makes one wonder why anyone would actually listen to them in the […]